So there’s a football match coming up: you’re, looking at all of the stats and home team’s won four out of four the way teams lost four out of four, so you’re sort of thinking. Oh, maybe our favor, this team. What stats should you use if you’re looking at a football match?
That’S what I’m going to talk about in this video click here to subscribe to our YouTube channel you’ll, get instant notification of new videos as they’re released. So if you go to a website like the BBC Sky, pretty much anybody now you’ll see at the bottom of a match preview. You know key stats, it says, and the key stats will say something like so-and-so has won when they played away at this venue. They haven’t lost or they haven’t won, or it’s been a you know, a large number of draws, or they don’t score this many goals and all these key stats pop up at the bottom, telling you things that are relevant to that particular match, but they’re not because Generally, the stats are historical items that bear no relevance to the match.
That’S in front of you matches between teams vary and interlock in quite complex ways and looking at historic results such as you find on websites or at the bottom of summaries and match previews and stuff, like that. Very often don’t bear any relevance to the outcome of the particular result, so you’ll be interested to know that I don’t use them it’s interesting really, because if you go back many years ago, I started digging around inside football interests and try to understand how football matches Should be priced and had the outcomes of matches occur and the thing that was surprisingly, it was like discovered all sorts of little interesting things and I wrote to a magazine and said all you know. Would you like to do an article on this and I got a letter back basically saying no, because it’s incredibly dull a mean and interesting a you look at stats today and they’re everywhere, there’s so many of them you’re.
Sometimes sport for choice and there’s just hundreds of sites detailing loads of stuff, but unfortunately most of it is completely irrelevant. Unfortunately, and part of the reason for this is that most of the stats that generated a based upon historical data, they inherited bias in the way that they’re interpreted, but also the creation of these stats is there to stimulate you to do something. So, typically, you know people offer bet stimulus services where they throw stats.
A house that will get people to actively engage just like so-and-so has done this. It’S like oh yeah, so they have right. I’Ll have a fiver on that and that’s where a lot of their stats come from they’re, not actually interested in the prediction of the outcome of the match at all.
Really and the fact is most people aren’t most people just can’t be bothered to go through that pain and suffering. That comes with accurately trying to predict the outcome on a ferment. They just want some simple little stats and then they’ll jump on them and away. They go now. The fact is that there is an underlying core that sits within a football match that allows you to pick out any number of different types of interesting statistics from the match. So using two variables I can actually describe the chance of the home team.
Winning any of the correct scores, the away team winning the chance of a draw when their first goal is likely to be scored. If that first goal is scored by whom, if the home team is one and a half time, it will describe the chance of the away team coming back into the match. At some point there I had the number of corners, the number of likely shots, on-target yeah, but ever they’ve of it just two variables describe the whole thing, but you very rarely see people actually talking about them in any great deal of information. But before I talk about those, let’s go back to where we suffer from in terms of the historical stats, so let’s say we have an unlimited deck of cards.
Let’S say that we can just deal as many cards as to like infinitely into the future. There’S an infinite pack. If we keep turning over those cards, it’s very likely likely at some point a sequence will occur so we’ll go black red black black red red red black black black black black black black, black, black red red, red red red red red red. But the fact is that every time that sequence occurs, when you turn the next card in an infinite deck of cards, there’s no increased chance of a black or a red.
It’S completely random as long as you’ve shuffled the deck and there’s no funny business going on now. I’Ll actually got a great follow-up. Video to show you how I get completely random deck of cards can sort of be made under and’im by well.
I won’t go into depth as to how it’s done, but basically I guarantee you if I show you this method, you can win money from anybody, despite the fact that the turn of the next card is completely random and it’s all part to do with the way That people mix up sequences, but also you know the gamblers. Fallacy is a common thing, that’s described in mathematics and probability, and it’s basically the feeling that if you have a sequence of long periods of red or black, that somehow that influence is the outcome of the next turn of the card. And the fact is, it doesn’t just the same as when you’re in the roulette, and there are six blacker blacks come up, it doesn’t influence the outcome of the next red or black and, as a consequence, the gamblers fallacy permeates permanently. You know a string of winning favorites people start betting on the eighth favorite. A string of losers will alter people’s behavior, but the fact is that what’s happened in the past does not necessarily predict what’s going to happen in the future, but a lot of people will bet on it and that’s where the stats on football do lead.
You astray, because they’re designed to stimulate you to perform an action, and that is because of the sequencing of patterns and trends within it when in fact, that’s an irrelevance in terms of where you’re going to predict the next match. So what are the two key variables that I use to predict everything within a football match? Well, it’s really simple: it just boils down to goals. How many goals is the home team gon na score?
How many goals is the away team gon na score? Because if you can accurately predict both of those things which you can do, then everything works out from within them. So if the home team is going to score X, number of girls in their way team’s going to score Y, if that, if the way team scores a goal, then that metric is still present within the match and then the home team is expected to score this. Many goals and therefore the chance of them coming back into the match, is going to be related to the difference between goals between the two teams and how many goals have been scored and how much time is left on the clock. So you can actually predict all of that just using then of goals that home team scores and the amount of girls in the waiting school.
So when I do the football ratings, that’s what I’m doing, I’m working through all of the detail in terms of how many girls are likely to be allocated to the home team, how many are likely to be allocated the way team and how many going to be Scored overall and from that key information, everything spins off of that. So if you don’t believe me well, I’ve been doing it, for god knows how many years and it works beautifully. But the fact is most stat sites are not focused on that at all. So if you know how many goals are likely to scored, you can forecast nil-nil one or two nil.
Three nil. You can group all of those scores together to create the match odds market over and unders, and then you can start to look at other things, such as when the time of goal is going to occur and if a goal occurs at this time. What’S the likelihood of another goal at this point until the end of the match so yeah? If you’re gon na research and look at football in great depth, then I suggest that’s where you put your focus in studying intensely how many goals are going to be scored and who is likely to score them. Look at these scoring stats ignore the results, because the results don’t really tell you that much information, because it could have been played against any number of teams and you can go many many levels deeper. But when you look at football essentially, what I do is just focus on the number of goals that are likely to be scored and who’s going to score them.
That tells me absolutely everything that I know from that. I can predict its time of first goal. What happens if a goal goes in what the chance of the other team coming back into it when the match is underway? I then start looking to see if my projection before the match is matching what I’m actually seeing during the match, because if it isn’t, is whether, if it isn’t, then I need to reassess everything that I’ve done and look at it from a different angle. If the match is turning out differently from what I originally forecasted so yeah when you’re looking at football, you can pretty much ignore all sorts of other stats, such as teams, beginning with the letter B, tend to be teams beginning with the letter.
L, because it’s an irrelevant so the fact that so-and-so has won X amount of times in a row or hasn’t won on this ground for 20 years. What you need to do is focus right in on those basics, and that will give you everything that you need to know just excessively fork. What’S going to happen in a football match, please like or dislike the video or leave a comment below that will allow me to produce better videos and more of them in the future.
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